Express Entry Draw Predictions and CRS Score Trends For July 2025

Last Updated On 1 July 2025, 9:16 AM EDT (Toronto Time)

Canada’s Express Entry system remains a cornerstone of the country’s economic immigration strategy, offering skilled workers a pathway to permanent residency.

As we head into July 2025, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) continues to shape its immigration landscape to address labour market needs.

This article dives deep into the trends, patterns, and predictions for Express Entry draws in July 2025, based on the 2025 draws to date and the latest Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score distribution in the pool.

With a focus on Canadian Experience Class (CEC), Provincial Nominee Program (PNP), healthcare and social services, education, and French language proficiency categories, we’ll explore what candidates can anticipate and how to optimize their profiles for success.

Overview of Express Entry in 2025

In 2025, the Canadian immigration strategy has shifted significantly.

The 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan targets 395,000 new permanent residents in 2025, a reduction from 485,000 in 2024, reflecting concerns about housing, healthcare capacity, and economic integration.

Of these, 124,680 spots are allocated to Express Entry, with 82,980 reserved for in-Canada candidates, primarily through the CEC, and 41,700 for federal economic priorities, including healthcare, trades, and French proficiency categories.

This focus on in-Canada candidates and specific occupations underscores Canada’s aim to address labour shortages and support Francophone communities outside Quebec.

Express Entry Draws in 2025: A Recap

To predict what July 2025 holds, let’s analyze the 23 Express Entry draws conducted from January to June 2025, which issued a total of 38,845 ITAs.

The draws reflect an overall strategic pivot away from general, all-program draws to targeted, category-based, and program-specific rounds.

Below is a summary of the key trends observed:

1. Canadian Experience Class (CEC) Draws

The CEC, designed for skilled workers with at least one year of Canadian work experience, has been a focal point in 2025, aligning with the In-Canada Focus allocation of 82,980 spots.

Six CEC draws have issued 15,850 ITAs, with CRS cut-offs ranging from 521 to 547.

The most recent CEC draw on June 26, 2025, invited 3,000 candidates with a CRS score of 521, the lowest cut-off for CEC this year.

The high CRS thresholds (averaging around 530) reflect a competitive pool of candidates with strong profiles, often bolstered by Canadian education and language proficiency.

2. Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) Draws

PNP draws have been a staple, issuing 4,992 ITAs across 10 draws, with CRS cut-offs ranging from 667 to 802.

A provincial nomination adds 600 CRS points, making it a game-changer for candidates with lower base scores.

For example, the June 10 draw invited 125 PNP candidates with a CRS cut-off of 784.

However, PNP allocations have been slashed from 110,000 in 2024 to 55,000 in 2025, leading to smaller draw sizes and higher cut-offs.

This reduction reflects Canada’s efforts to balance regional labour needs with national priorities.

3. Category-Based Draws

Category-based draws, introduced in mid-2023, target candidates with specific skills or attributes.

In 2025, these draws focus on three priority categories: healthcare and social services, education, and French language proficiency.

Healthcare and Social Services: Two draws (May 2 and June 4) issued 1,000 ITAs with CRS cut-offs of 510 and 504, respectively.
- These draws target professions like physicians, nurses, and social workers to address critical shortages in Canada’s healthcare sector.
Education: A single draw on May 1 issued 1,000 ITAs with a CRS cut-off of 479, targeting teachers, early childhood educators, and instructors for persons with disabilities.
- This was the first education-specific draw, reflecting Canada’s need for educational professionals.
French Language Proficiency: Three draws issued 18,500 ITAs, with CRS cut-offs ranging from 379 to 428.
- The March 21 draw was the largest, inviting 7,500 candidates with a record-low CRS score of 379.
- These draws support Canada’s target of 29,325 French-speaking permanent resident admissions outside Quebec in 2025 (8.5% of total admissions).

4. CRS Score Trends

CRS cutoffs vary significantly by draw type. French proficiency draws have the lowest cut-offs (379–428), making them accessible to candidates with moderate scores.

CEC draws typically require scores above 520, while PNP draws have the highest cut-offs (667–802) due to the 600-point nomination boost.

The absence of draws for a brief period of time from March 21 to April 14 has eliminated opportunities for lower-scoring candidates without specific qualifications, pushing the average CRS threshold higher.

CRS Score Distribution in the Pool

The latest CRS score distribution provides insight into the competitiveness of the Express Entry pool, which contained 256,754 candidates as of June 22, 2025:

601–1200: 471 candidates (highly competitive, likely PNP nominees)
501–600: 22,947 candidates (competitive for CEC and some category-based draws)
451–500: 76,748 candidates (largest group, but less competitive without nominations or category eligibility)
401–450: 72,235 candidates
351–400: 54,237 candidates
301–350: 21,746 candidates
0–300: 8,370 candidates

The majority of candidates (76,748) fall in the 451–500 range, indicating a crowded pool where only those with nominations or French proficiency have a strong chance of receiving an ITA.

Predictions for July 2025 Express Entry Draws

Based on the 2025 trends, immigration targets, and CRS score distribution, here’s what candidates can expect from Express Entry draws in July 2025:

1. Continued Focus on Targeted Draws

Express Entry draws in July are likely to continue focusing on CEC, PNP, and category-based rounds.

The 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan emphasizes selectivity to meet labour market needs and Francophone immigration goals.

With 38,845 ITAs issued by June 30, IRCC is expected to issue a similar number of invitations in the remainder of 2025.

Assuming a biweekly schedule, July could see 3–4 draws issuing in the range of 4,000–7,500 ITAs in total.

2. Canadian Experience Class (CEC) Draws

Given the In-Canada Focus allocation of 82,980 spots, CEC draws will remain a priority.

June saw two CEC draws (June 12 and June 26) issuing 6,000 ITAs with CRS cut-offs of 529 and 521, respectively.

We predict at least 1-2 CEC draws in July, likely inviting 2,500–3,500 candidates with a CRS cut-off around 520–530.

The high cut-offs reflect the competitive nature of the CEC pool, where candidates often have Canadian work experience, education, and strong language skills.

Tip for Candidates: To boost your CRS score for CEC draws, focus on improving language proficiency (e.g., achieving CLB 9 or higher in English or French) or gaining additional Canadian work experience. A CRS score above 520 is ideal for competitiveness.

3. Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) Draws

PNP draws have been consistent, with five draws in the first half of 2025 issuing 2,391 ITAs.

With PNP allocations cut to 55,000, draw sizes are smaller (125–825 ITAs) and CRS cut-offs are high (667–802).

We expect 1–2 PNP draws in July, each issuing 300–600 ITAs with CRS cut-offs around 720–750.

Provinces like Ontario and British Columbia, despite reduced quotas, may now prioritize candidates in healthcare, trades, and education.

Tip for Candidates: Explore PNP streams in provinces with labour shortages, such as Manitoba or New Brunswick.

A nomination adds 600 CRS points, virtually guaranteeing an ITA. However, act quickly, as provinces may exhaust their 2025 quotas by September.

4. Category-Based Draws

Category-based draws will continue to target healthcare, education, and French proficiency, aligning with Canada’s economic and IRCC’s departmental plan for 2025-2026.

Healthcare and Social Services: With only two healthcare draws in 2025 (1,000 ITAs total), IRCC may conduct a healthcare draw in July to address persistent shortages.
- Expect 500–1,000 ITAs with a CRS cut-off of 500–510, targeting professions like nurses, physicians, and social workers.
Education: The May 1 education draw was a first, and IRCC may repeat it in July to meet demand for teachers and educators. Anticipate 800–1,200 ITAs with a CRS cut-off around 475–485.
French Language Proficiency: French proficiency draws have been the largest, issuing 18,500 ITAs in 2025.
- With a target of 8.5% French-speaking admissions outside Quebec in 2025, 9.5% in 2026, and 10% in 2027, IRCC is likely to hold a large French draw in July, issuing 5,000–7,000 ITAs with a CRS cut-off of 370–400.
- These draws offer the best opportunity for candidates with lower CRS scores.

Tip for Candidates: If eligible for a category-based draw, ensure your Express Entry profile reflects your qualifications (e.g., French test results or relevant work experience).

French proficiency draws are particularly accessible, with cut-offs as low as 379.5.

CRS Score Expectations

CRS cut-offs will remain high for PNP and CEC draws (above 520 and 700, respectively) due to the competitive pool and nomination bonuses.

French proficiency draws will offer lower cut-offs (370–410), while healthcare and education draws will likely range from 475–510.

The removal of job offer points in March 2025 may slightly lower cutoffs in some categories, but dramatic drops are unlikely given the reduced immigration targets.

Tip for Candidates: A CRS score of 510+ is competitive for CEC and category-based draws, while 450+ may suffice for French proficiency or education draws.

Use IRCC’s CRS calculator to assess your score and identify areas for improvement.

Strategies to Boost Your Express Entry Profile

With IRCC’s focus on targeted categories, candidates must optimize their profiles to stay competitive.

Here are actionable strategies:

Improve Language Proficiency: Language skills contribute up to 260 CRS points (or 290 with a spouse). Achieving CLB 7 or higher in French (e.g., TEF or TCF) can qualify you for French proficiency draws with low cut-offs. Improving English scores (IELTS or CELPIP) can also boost your ranking in CEC draws.
Gain Canadian Work Experience: One year of skilled work in Canada (NOC TEER 0, 1, 2, or 3) qualifies you for the CEC, adding up to 80 CRS points. Remote work counts if performed in Canada for a Canadian employer.
Target In-Demand Occupations: Healthcare, education, and trades are priority sectors. If your occupation aligns with these categories (e.g., nurse, teacher, or carpenter), ensure your work experience is clearly documented in your Express Entry profile.
Consider Canadian Education: A Canadian degree, diploma, or certificate can add up to 150 CRS points. International students with Canadian credentials are well-positioned for CEC draws.
Consult an Immigration Professional: A licensed immigration consultant or lawyer can help maximize your CRS score and navigate complex PNP or category-based requirements.

With over 40% of 2025 admissions expected from temporary residents already in Canada, CEC and PNP candidates have a clear advantage.

French-speaking candidates also benefit from large draws and low CRS cut-offs, supporting Canada’s commitment to 8.5% Francophone admissions outside Quebec.

The reduced immigration targets (395,000 in 2025, compared to 485,000 in 2024) have made the system more selective, but opportunities remain for those who align with Canada’s priorities.

The CRS score distribution shows a competitive pool, with most candidates in the 451–500 range, but targeted draws provide pathways for those with scores as low as 379 (French proficiency) or 479 (education).

IRCC will revise its immigration targets in November 2025, unveiling the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan.

For 2026, Canada plans to welcome 380,000 permanent residents, with 123,230 spots for Express Entry (75,830 for In-Canada Focus and 47,400 for federal economic priorities).

Always remember not to confuse the number of invitations with the annual target. Number of invitations in any given year is never equal to the annual target for that year.

The Francophone admission target will rise to 9.5% (31,350), suggesting even larger French proficiency draws in the future.

By 2027, the target drops to 365,000, with 118,730 Express Entry spots and a 10% Francophone goal (31,500).

These plans indicate a continued emphasis on in-Canada candidates and priority sectors, with no immediate return to all-program draws.

Candidates should prepare for high CRS thresholds and focus on building profiles that align with CEC, PNP, or category-based criteria.

Express Entry draws in July 2025 will likely follow the trends of the first half of the year, with a focus on CEC, PNP, and category-based draws for healthcare, education, and French proficiency.

Expect 3–4 draws issuing 4,000–7,000 ITAs, with CRS cut-offs ranging from 370 (French proficiency) to 750 (PNP).

Candidates with Canadian work experience, provincial nominations, or French skills have the best chances of success, while those in the 451–500 CRS range must strategize to boost their CRS score.

To maximize your chances, improve your language scores, gain Canadian work experience, or pursue a provincial nomination.

Stay informed about IRCC announcements and align your profile with Canada’s labour market needs.

With careful planning, July 2025 could be your opportunity to secure a pathway to Canadian permanent residency.

What is the Express Entry?

Express Entry is Canada’s flagship immigration system, managing applications for three federal economic programs: the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP), the Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP), and the Canadian Experience Class (CEC).

It also includes a portion of the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP). Candidates are ranked using the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS), a points-based system that evaluates factors such as age, education, work experience, and language proficiency.

Those with the highest CRS scores receive Invitations to Apply (ITAs) for permanent residency during regular draws, which occur approximately every two weeks.

Kamal Deep Singh, RCIC

Kamal Deep Singh, RCIC (Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant) licensed by CICC (formerly known as ICCRC) with member number R708618. He brings extensive knowledge of immigration law and new changes to rapidly evolving IRCC.